I just finished watching “A Crude Awakening”, the latest film attempting to jolt human beings into meaningful action towards averting a global catastrophe of epic proportions. Whenever a film moves me deeply, the first viewing is required for emotional processing. On the second viewing my cognitive brain starts to grapple with the issues raised. See this movie. Meanwhile, I offer you a blend of my emotional and cognitive impressions:
One of the most riveting scenes was aerial footage of a high mountain, showing beautiful meadows leading gradually upwards to a set of ominous jagged teeth on the horizon. The Phillip Glass (Koyanisqattsi, Kundun) soundtrack escalates into a psychotropic beat while a voice – eerie in its calmness - states that once we’ve exceeded the sustainable peak supply of oil (with the heavy implication that that time could very well be right now – 2008), what is then important is the view that comes into sight on the other side (beyond our current profligate consumption of oil). The camera then rises beyond the summit to reveal a sheer cliff hidden in deep shadows.
Now the sobering facts: “We are moving into an era of scarce and expensive energy.” The oil we are consuming now is literally the blood of the dinosaurs – cooked over 90 to 150 million years of geological time. This happened once in Earth’s history, and in the space of a few centuries, we have nearly exhausted this supply.
98% of all transportation energy is currently derived from oil. A microchip requires 630 times its own weight in oil to produce. The average car requires somewhere between 25-50 barrels of oil to produce. Every calorie you eat in the U.S. Requires 10 calories of hydrocarbon energy to produce.
Historians estimate there were about 300 million humans on the planet at the time of Christ. This slowly grew to about 600 million by the early 1800s – the dawn of the era of coal and oil. Today, there are 6.4 billion humans on the planet. According to current trends, global population will reach 9 billion by 2042. This population rise is due in large part to the “green revolution” - the transformation of traditional farming by massive application of petrochemical (oil based) fertilizers on the Earth, as well as a steady march of larger and larger fossil fuel burning farm machinery.
Boom to Bust
The first oil boom began in the 1870’s in Baku on the shores of the Caspian Sea in what is now the country of Azerbaijan. Venezuela and Texas soon followed in the early decades of the 20th century. For a time up until the 1950s, the U.S. was the leading producer of oil in the world. But as the mayor of a bust town in Texas wryly commented “they aren’t making dinosaurs anymore”.
Oil is a Magnet for War
Oil starts wars. It prolongs them. It intensifies them. World War II was “the war of engines” and was won by the Allied Powers in large part because of the Russian (Baku) and U.S. (Texas) oil production capacity. The current Iraq war, launched in 2003 was not a war on terrorism, as was claimed at the time by our government leaders. All evidence now points to the fact that the war was motivated by oil. Maps of oil fields were involved in planning the war as early as 1998. The Iraq war underscores the dangerous predicament of the American and global economies: More and more of the oil today comes from less and less stable political regions.
The Numbers Don’t add up
Since 1985, OPEC nations have been exaggerating their reserves in order to keep up production quotas. The wealthy sheiks are apparently not interested in sustainability, but instead wish to maximize their short term profits so that they can purchase and maintain gilded palaces, mega yachts, luxury cars and of course some diversified foreign investments.
Every year, these countries state the same amount of reserves, inexplicably denying the fact that as billions of barrels are pumped out of the ground, nothing is replacing that pumped oil. These leaders will all be dead in 20 years. More about the increasing destabilization of the Saudi regime a bit later on.
U.S. oil production peaked in 1970 at about 10.2 million barrels per day. In 1956, Dr. M. K. Hubbert, a geophysicist for Shell Oil predicted that peak production of oil for the U.S. would occur in 1970. His prediction proved extremely accurate, although at the time, he was nearly laughed out of his profession. In 1969, he predicted that peak oil for the world would occur by the year 2000.
Whether or not global peak oil has already occurred, is occurring now, or has not yet occurred is widely debated. What is agreed upon – when it is not outright ignored much of the time – is that peak oil is a certainty. When the oil is gone, there will be no more oil.
The Middle East is the only area of the world where production has perhaps not yet peaked – and we are now witnessing what is likely to become a generation or two of oil resource wars until all the oil is gone – unless we collectively develop the vision and willpower to end our unsustainable addiction to oil now. We need to both reinvest heavily in alternative energy research and development, and implement massive energy conservation programs - at all levels of society - individual, family, community, town, county, city, state, country, world.
Global Demand keeps rising, supply flattening out
Global demand for oil and energy continues to rise. The Chinese economy is doubling in size every 7 years based on a 10% annual growth rate. India is poised to pass China as the world’s most populated country and they too seem eager to step up to the party plate and join the American way of life – a car for every individual. Only now, “the glass is half empty.”
The United States has 4.5% of the world’s population. We have 2% of the global oil reserves inside our borders, and yet we consume 25% of the oil. Even if every car on the planet were magically transformed into a Prius hybrid electric, in five years, our demand for oil would still exceed supply. The demand for energy simply keeps expanding without any apparent restraint.
When the crash happens, American suburbia will be in deep trouble because it is built around people stepping into their car and driving 50 to 100 miles round trip each day. It’s only viable if gas is cheap.
As long as there is cheap gas in America, there will be no incentive for change. However, time is getting short, and unless we prepare, we may be faced with “a crude awakening” - unemployment, bankruptcy, poverty, starvation. The U.S. needs to lead the world in conservation and alternative energy research, but the politicians have little incentive to push such measures unless the general public supports them, otherwise, they will be quickly voted out of office for advancing unpopular measures.
Beginning in 1945, U.S. foreign policy was very clearly linked to oil based upon America’s relationship with Saudi Arabia. We offered the ruling elite military protection, and they provided us with oil.
Ten years ago, the per capita income in Saudia Arabia was $28,000. Today it is $6,000. The average Saudi youth and young adult feels alienated within their own country, left out of the global economy. Fundamentalism is sharply on the rise, and the stability of the aging regime is increasingly questionable. If the regime were to collapse, the pressure coming from the U.S. corporate controlled government to step in militarily would be immense.
In the end, this “liberated” Saudia oil will only extend the American lifestyle of excess for a decade or two, but at an incredibly high price – more young American war dead and wounded, an even deeper cancerous effect on the American economy and debt our children will inherit, certain terrorist retribution, and making the transition to a non-petroleum based economy even more abrupt due to continued denial of the basic problem – right up until the oil is all gone. Haven’t we learned anything from Iraq?
Technology to the Rescue?
Hybrid cars are not the answer. Hydrogen fuel cell technology is “conceptually a good idea.” But there are numerous challenges for both developing this resource and creating a market for it. A few experts suggest it will take another 30 to 50 years before this can even begin to start meeting global energy demands. Biomass similarly will only provide a proverbial drop in the bucket in terms of meeting demand. In addition this technology has ethical shortcomings as it appears to be playing a role in the current world food shortages. People are literally starving because palm oil plantations and speculation in similar crop futures are crowding out food for human consumption.
Nuclear power similarly faces huge questions in safety – both operational and storage of wastes, as well as vulnerability to terrorist attack and plutonium bomb making materials becoming available on the black market. Even if we were able to build the 10,000 plants that it would take to meet current global demand for energy (in the absence of oil production), the world’s supply of uranium would be gone in 10 to 20 years.
Solar power still faces huge challenges to make it viable on a large scale. The number of solar panels in existence might cover about 10 square kilometers when what we need is to cover an area about half the size of the state of California. Oil shale extraction technologies are incredibly expensive and inefficient at present.
Air Travel will essentially end
Air travel will essentially come to an end for all but the super rich. Our entire way of life will radically change and the longer we wait to prepare for the inevitable justice meted out by the Earth, the less able we will be able to adapt successfully. Global population is certain to decline. As the parent of a five year old, it troubles me to think of her fighting for her survival, but her uncertain path is up near the jagged ridge line - a beautiful meadow on one side, dark abyss on the other. Her future - and the future of her generation, depends upon what we do right now. Will it be a continuation of life? or the beginning of survival?
First, we need to conserve – and I’m not just talking about recycling paper and pop cans. We need to go a lot further - like rethinking the rationale for producing nonessentials such as pop, beer, and ten thousand other consumer products (the vast majority involving plastic and petrochemicals. Think how much cleaner our cities and towns would be without beer and beverage trucks belching diesel into the air? We need to stop thinking “life as usual” and start preparing for phase two of the oil era. BIG changes folks.
Consider not using your clothes dryer and put up a clothesline. Ride your bike or take mass transit. Get rid of your car if you can. Plant an organic garden. Invest and participate in local sustainable economies (like community acupuncture). Think about right livelihood in terms of a sustainable global economy. If you work involves extensive travel, rethink that now. Your options are definitely going to be reduced very soon. Finally, let’s get real about U.S. foreign policy. There is no place for a superpower in a dominator role as the world’s police force. Soon there will be no maritime fuel to power the aircraft carriers. No jet fuel to power the jets. Better to dismantle the killing machines now so that when the walls of Rome II (that’s America) come tumbling down, the millions we have oppressed do not repeat history with a modern campaign of barbaric revenge against the empire. All of this may be only a few years away unless we pull our heads out of the sand and take a serious look at the gathering storm clouds on the horizon.
Now, it’s up to us to think about every human being alive, not just our own selfish concerns. May all beings develop a compassionate mind, with concern for every living being. May we all be happy as we learn to live with less.
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